tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71397713740751289802024-03-18T15:52:00.207+08:00ETRC GroupUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger267125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-81411633095703155302024-03-11T12:42:00.004+08:002024-03-11T12:42:53.990+08:00<h2 style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-weight: normal;">Absolute or Relative?</span></h2><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">* KMT legislators are contemplating changes to the "Laws Governing the Election of President and Vice President." Instead of declaring the largest vote getter the winner in future presidential elections, the KMT plans to have a run-off for the top-two vote getters if none gets over 50% on the first ballot. Taiwan People's Party (TPP) intends to join the KMT in amending relevant laws to produce future leaders with a popular mandate at, or above, 50%.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">* Those opposing the planned changes claims that the ROC Constitution must amend provisions first, since any democratic election, as currently stated, is won by the largest vote getter. Though there are no provisions against a run-off, any constitutional amendment would require a three quarters majority in the legislature and a subsequent referendum supported by no less than 9,650,000 popular votes. In Taiwan's domestic politics today, that's a tall order for any constitutional revisions.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">* In addition, given the political sensitivity associated with any planned constitutional changes, it may lead to strong reactions from Beijing, suspecting the ROC Constitution could be replaced someday. Therefore, it makes any constitutional changes extremely difficult, if not impossible, to avoid any fallout from mistaken interpretations by any country.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-weight: normal;">* Since Taiwan will likely have, at least, three candidates in future presidential elections, a run-off would seem to make sense to produce a leader supported by the majority. However, domestic constraints and international implications could make such efforts frustrating and futile. Though the KMT and TPP combined would hold a majority in the LY, it's not nearly enough if the planned target requires amending the ROC Constitution. The controversy, therefore, could make the planned actions moot and political irrelevant. </span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-2676289531757999352024-03-06T12:17:00.001+08:002024-03-06T12:17:08.814+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Orchestrating a New Cabinet</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-teh has been busy putting a new administrative team together while adhering to incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen's key policy positions, including cross-Strait relations. Since the ruling DPP is composed of factions, this won't be an easy task as factional balance needs to be maintained.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* In addition, with a minority DPP presence (51 seats) in the Legislative Yuan (LY), collaboration with either the Kuomintang (KMT, with 54 seats) or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP, holding 8 seats) appears inevitable. However, there doesn't seem to be any inter-party foundation to support such an undertaking, at least not on politically sensitive matters. It's therefore likely that Taiwan will see more legislative gridlocks in the next four years.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-26406673453171742772024-02-21T12:14:00.005+08:002024-02-21T12:15:18.431+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times;">A New Legislative Session Gets Underway</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) began a new session February 20. Despite many new faces and a new leadership in the LY, however, a verbal war of words broke out between first-year legislators from the KMT and the DPP. Though the confrontation did not deteriorate, it was an early glimpse of what the LY has in store for the three political parties--KMT, DPP, and the TPP--in the next four years.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* As a minor party with eight seats, the TPP remains elusive on collaboration with either the KMT or DPP on key pieces of legislation. It is possibly the best strategic position for the TPP, as it strives to maintain its autonomy amidst divisive political landscape on the island. The goal is to develop TPP's grassroots organizations around the island, making it more than a party for the young, urban professionals.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Undoubtedly, since President-elect Lai Ching Teh captured only 40% of the popular vote, the LY will be an integral part of government policymaking if the ruling DPP plans to get anything accomplished in the next four years. It won't be easy because it is now the KMT, not the DPP, that holds the largest number of seats at 54. While a KMT-DPP legislative collaboration cannot be ruled out completely, such an occasion will be few and rare. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Though the presidential election just concluded on January 13, it's never too early to speculate on 2026 (local mayoral elections) and 2028 (next presidential and legislative contests). Though a lot of names have been mentioned for the upcoming elections, a zillion things can happen between now and then. It can be a political thermometer for "who's in, who's out," but no one can say with any degree of certainty what, and who, will lead the pack when the time comes. therefore, let's indulge in the speculation exercise to keep the dreams alive for those aspiring participants!</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-10572957642883498222024-02-19T12:44:00.003+08:002024-02-19T15:25:08.168+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">When there is no communication...</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* A Chinese fishing high-speed boat with four fishermen on board capsized on Wednesday, February 14, 2024, near the Kinmen islands while being pursued by the Taiwanese coast guard. </span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The subsequent chase between the parties led to all four Chinese fishermen aboard falling into the water, which resulted in two deaths. Another two are in custody of Taiwanese authorities and recovering in the hospital.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* When the incident first happened, both China and Taiwan kept their respective "cool" and refrained from making claims that would further undermine the already-fragile trust between the two neighbors in the Taiwan Strait. However, things have intensified as official rhetorics from both sides started to point fingers at the other side for wrongdoing in handling the incident. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* In fact, the Chinese coast guard on February 18 stated that it "will strengthen maritime law enforcement in the waters to help maintain the order of maritime operations." At the minimum, the risks of another similar incident have increased following the toughened position of both sides.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Since two sides have not maintained channels of communication since 2016, it remains a flashpoint between China and Taiwan over fishing rights. Unless there is a dramatic shift in the DPP administration's policy vis-a-vis China, tensions across the Taiwan Strait will likely remain high before President-elect Lai Ching-teh inaugurates on May 20. It also paints a gloomy picture over cross-Strait relations for the next four years, at least.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-51915910840556956212024-02-14T13:59:00.000+08:002024-02-14T13:59:08.744+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">So...the Year of the Loong Begins</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao celebrated the Year of the Dragon, or Loong (</span><span style="font-family: arial;">青龍年)</span><span style="font-family: times;">,with a seven-day recess. Starting on February 15, people will return to their workplaces amidst economic uncertainties in China and Hong Kong, and an unpredictable cross-Strait relationship following the election of Lai Ching-teh as Taiwan's next president on January 13.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Over the past week, there were the usual, now almost routine, flight and naval cruiser incursions around Taiwan. There weren't anything out of the ordinary, so most people in Taiwan carried on their Lunary New Year festivities as usual. Many residents journeyed abroad with families and friends, and increasing numbers of visitors from, among other places, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia came to the island because of, among other things, geographic proximity and relatively inexpensive standards of living, giving indications that both inbound and outbound tourism is slowly returning to the pre-COVID levels.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* For the ruling DPP, the president-elect Lai has been busy putting a cabinet together before inauguration on May 20. Though recruiting non-DPP members into government remains a priority, it will largely stay a DPP-dominated administration with few political appointees from other parties to represent an "inclusive governing coalition."</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Across the Strait, Beijing already has a plateful of pressing issues with long-term implications. Beginning with a sluggish economy and rising unemployment, especially among those 40 and under, economic goal-setting, maybe for the first time, has more unknowns than answers this time around. With the US-China economic competition remaining intense, few in the government are certain if any of the stimulus measures, once implemented, would lead to the desired results. In addition, the sagging stock markets have undermined the public's confidence in the ruling CCP's abilities to address economic matters. That's never a good sign in a command economy.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* What makes cross-Strait relations tricky, and potentially dangerous, this year is the number of unknowns and unpredictables. While it's not a priority for the CCP to "resolve" the Taiwan issue now, president-elect Lai's past independence-leaning rhetorics have put Beijing's policy makers on the edge of their seats. Furthermore, since there is no channels of communication between Beijing and Taipei, any misinterpretation of the other's words and deeds runs the risks of a minor incident spiraling out of control. Though that's been a priority for Washington and neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea, it does not appear imminent that the current impasse will have a breakthrough this year. Therein lies the risks of miscalculation.</span></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-16273764939545318612024-02-06T17:49:00.002+08:002024-02-06T17:49:37.703+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Bracing for a New Political Landscape...</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The Legislative Yuan (LY) will convene on February 20, with a first KMT-backed speaker and vice speaker tandem in eight years. In addition, smaller parties like the People First Party (PFP) and New Power Party (NPP) failed to win any seat to form a caucus. Therefore, it's now a three-party affair between the KMT, DPP, and TPP in the coming four years.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* There are indications that the TPP plans to utilize its eight seats to the fullest and will work with both the KMT and DPP on legislations that fit its party's interests. The most important task for the TPP is to develop its grassroots organization around Taiwan, continue its strong hold on voters below 40, and avoid being labeled as a "small green" or "small blue" party. In other words, if the TPP gets too close with either the KMT or DPP, it's easy to blur the party lines and makes a "political merger" with either inevitable. Since TPP Chairman Ke Wen-je has presidential aspirations for 2028, party independence is indispensable to remain politically viable.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The KMT and the DPP, on the other hand, will explore ways to work together when the legislative agenda fits their respective party interests. They will compete, contend, and collaborate in the next four years. No one knows how the inter-party relations will look, but violence will not be commonplace. That's a welcome change from Taiwan's LY when little room for rational debate remained available. </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-13992191054890227512024-01-31T12:39:00.001+08:002024-01-31T12:39:38.982+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">And The TPP Will Vote For...</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) will begin a new session and elect a speaker and a vice speaker at the same time. Since neither the KMT nor the DPP holds an outright majority, the eight seats of the TPP thus become critical. On the eve of the February 1 election, the TPP made it clear that it will nominate its own candidate, Huang Shan-shan, to contest the speakership.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Suppose all 113 LY members vote along party lines, it is impossible to elect Huang with TPP's eight seats. Therefore, if no party candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting, the second round, or the run-off, becomes a competition between KMT's Han Kuo-yu and DPP's Yu Si-kuan. Barring any surprises, KMT's Han will win the speakership in the LY.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Since many local media outlets had already predicted the declared strategy above would serve the TPP's interests best, many believe this strategy would help the TPP win a seat as LY committee convener, capturing leverage over priority of draft bills to be review by the said committee, if a negotiated agreement can be reached with either KMT or DPP. It would be more politically significant for a young political party just established in 2019.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Depending on the bill, one can expect the TPP to work with both KMT and DPP at different times. It is undoubtedly the best strategy for a small party looking to grow and expand in the coming years. In addition to the relentless media pursuit and coverage during the last couple of weeks, TPP has secured its position as an indispensable player in Taiwan's young democracy. The key is not to over-play its minority niche. This time, the TPP has come close, but not overstepping that line.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* In essence, TPP's future is in its own hands. Less politicking and more on legislative performance would be a good place to start. How cohesive the party can stay together, particularly the eight seats in the LY, would be one of the first challenges this young party faces. </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-66565042370697236412024-01-30T20:54:00.003+08:002024-01-30T20:54:54.741+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The Key Minority</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* </span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">With eight seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan (LY), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has positioned itself as a relevant, sometimes indispensable, player to get anything passed in the next four years. In fact, it is abundantly evident in the upcoming intra-LY election for the speaker and the vice speaker on February 1, 2024.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Since neither the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) captured an outright majority over the 57-seat threshold, both need to win the support of the TPP in key votes to attain a majority. Therefore, in the speaker election on February 1, the nominees from both the DPP and the KMT had visited the TPP legislative caucus' office in recent days and, in turn, accepted, at least in principle, the reform package proposed by the TPP.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* It is rare for any small party to command the attention, and respect, of the two major parties in Taiwan's young democracy, but in the fifth year of its existence, the TPP has achieved the level of influence and relevance that no one could ignore. Unless it commits a major strategic misstep in the next four years, it is likely that Taiwan's 2028 presidential election will again be a tripartite affair between the DPP, KMT, and TPP. The next mayoral election in November 2026 would be a major test of TPP's grassroots support, in addition to its already formidable presence over the Internet, especially for those 40 and under.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-30896794666263022292024-01-28T13:54:00.004+08:002024-01-28T13:55:03.585+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">A Not-So-Minor Minority President?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* </span><span style="font-family: times;">DPP's William Lai won the January 13 presidential election with a little more than 40% (40.05% to be exact) of the popular votes. Though the outcome wasn't much of a surprise, Lai's vote total was 17% lower than what Tsai Ing-wen garnered in 2020. Most young voters--those 40 and under--preferred former Taipei Mayor Ke Wen-je over Lai, and there is no indication that things will change anytime soon.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Kuomintang's Hou You-yi, on the other hand, returned to being the mayor of New Taipei City following the disappointing results. Though many factors were responsible for Hou's defeat, his lack of personal charisma and experience on national issues, just to name a few, were clearly flaws that Hou was never able to recover. At the same time, he's doing his best to stave-off a grassroots-initiated recall campaign and avoid suffering the same fate as former Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu following the 2020 campaign.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* On the other hand, the KMT became the largest party, at 52 seats, in the Legislative Yuan (LY). With two friendly independent allies, the KMT now effectively wields 54 votes in the 113-seat body. The DPP only retained 51 seats, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) holds a key minority position with 8 seats.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* The new makeup of the LY could hamper the functioning of the incoming DPP administration. The TPP already made it clear that it intends to utilize its eight seats on legislations deemed critical to its survival and relevance. But there has been so much bad blood between the DPP and TPP, it's unlikely the two two can work closely together and consistently. The same can be said between the KMT and the TPP. Therefore, with LY being unpredictable in the next four years, it remains unclear that how much, and how inclusive, the Lai administration can implement policies that it aims to deliver following a hard-fought campaign.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-22495528364968301692024-01-02T19:01:00.003+08:002024-01-02T19:01:40.216+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times;">The Final Fifty-Yard Dash</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* After months of intense campaigning, Taiwan's 2024 presidential race comes down to the final ten days. The polls will open from 8am to 4pm on Saturday, January 13, 2024. Barring something unforeseen, the results should be available no later than 8pm.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Since no opinion poll will be made public in the final ten days, the last available numbers still showed DPP's William Lai has a narrowing lead of 2-4 percent over KMT's Hou You-yi, with Taiwan People's Party Chairman Ke Wen-je a distant third. Since the difference between Lai and Hou is within the margin of error, it's essentially a toss-up between the two dominant parties of DPP and KMT, with the voter turnout rate (anything higher 70% would be considered a boost for Hou) and any last-minute scandal (which has to directly implicate the candidate ) the remaining variables that could potentially upset the outcome.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* The election results will have, of course, far reaching consequences on cross-Strait relations and on US-China ties in the next four years, at least. While no one can predict with any certainty on China-Taiwan relations in the coming years, nobody should underestimate Beijing's resolve to reunify with Taiwan, by force if necessary, should the latter overstepping the "red lines" that Beijing has long deemed provocative, e.g. dejure independence and external interference. That scenario is far more likely if the DPP retains power and pursue measures that, in Beijing's eyes, made peaceful unification impossible.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times;">* The impact on the global economy would be devastating should a military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. Nobody wants to see that happening, and it's not imminent. It is, however, fair to say that no matter who the victor is on January 13, the room for policy and behavioral interpretation is limited if a foundation of trust is not put in place quickly across the Taiwan Strait. It's not going to be easy, especially after the suspension of dialogue since 2016. The four-month transfer of power period, until May 20, presents a particularly difficult challenge for all parties in the US-China-Taiwan trilateral context. </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-13036757741646813772023-11-14T12:08:00.005+08:002023-11-14T12:10:43.104+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">A Thing of the Past</span><span style="font-size: medium;">?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* With the clock ticking, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) have yet to reached an agreement on forming a combined ticket for the upcoming presidential election. There is plenty of blame to go around for the impasse. Besides both parties want its nominee to be atop the ticket, lack of trust and incongruence on some major policies, e.g. cross-Strait relations, are the major obstacles holding back the planned union.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* It's widely acknowledged that "politics makes strange bedfellow." There were past attempts at cross-party collaboration, most notably in the 2004 presidential race when KMT's Lien Chan joined forces with People First Party's (PFP) James Soong, which did not lead to a victory but the eventual demise of the PFP.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Judging from the past, the TPP, of course, has been cautious and measured in the inter-party negotiations during the last few weeks. The KMT, on the other hand, has not moved the needle much with an adamant demand that its nominee, Hou You-yi, must lead the ticket. However, with mounting pressure from the grassroots, the negotiations have intensified in recent days, as the deadline for submitting party nominations to the Central Election Commission (CEC) is November 24.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* There is no indication that the KMT-TPP union is imminent, but if they run separate campaigns, it could be an early, and easy, victory for the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) William Lai. Nobody in either KMT or the TPP would want to bear the responsibility of that outcome, but neither has shown much willingness to meet the other side halfway.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The next 48 hours will determine if the proposed cross-party collaboration would iron itself out eventually. While party leaders are politically calculating, the 2024 presidential election could pronounce the fate of major parties, and the role each will play, in Taiwan's divisive and highly emotional political landscape, at least until the next presidential race in 2028. </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-19667218157278194682023-10-25T16:58:00.001+08:002023-10-25T16:58:36.877+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> On Governance</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Taiwan's presidential election is heating up, with the primary focus on whether the KMT would collaborate with Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and form a combined ticket. While both parties have voiced the intention to collaborate, no concrete progress has been made in the last two weeks. There is no indication that the proposed KMT-TPP collaboration appears imminent, but the end of October is the deadline that would either make, or break, the planned alliance.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The stalled negotiations can only be interpreted as a result of too much "self-centered political calculation." Each party has its own set of interests and clearly lacks the understanding necessary, and appreciation, of gesture and rhetoric coming from the other party. Without a foundation of trust, the collaboration probably wouldn't work, and even if it did, it likely would not survive the first instance of policy, or operational, disagreement.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Governance is the measurement of governmental performance for the benefit of the people. Usually it's not the accomplishment of a single person, but a group of competent, committed officials working together as a team. As people often say, "it's no longer the age of one-man show."</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* This is something that has been overlooked in the presidential campaign. Voters would examine candidates' qualification, experience, and policy proposal in making their decision, but seldom they would question whether a particular candidate has "a team" to govern effectively and whether this "team" has accomplished enough in the past to warrant another shot at governance. Maybe people can dig a bit deeper, think a bit wider before casting their ballot.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-48781034454377372592023-10-02T17:05:00.000+08:002023-10-02T17:05:10.390+08:00<h2 style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times;">政黨的放話文化</span></h2><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* 台灣的2024大選,進入倒數100天。除了三不五時公布的民調,現階段最熱門的話題就是「藍白合」---要不要合、怎麼合都是民眾(尤其是泛藍的選民)關心的事。但輿論談了幾個月,「只見樓梯響,不見人下來」,政黨各懷鬼胎、別有用心,數個月來進展有限,目標仍是遙不可及。</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* 國民黨民眾黨雖同為在野,但彼此的理念、政策上不盡相同,在「下架民進黨」為最高戰略目標的驅使下,有來自基層的壓力希望藍白1+1能夠大於2,各自政黨的「高層人士」近日更頻頻放話,批評對方基層實力不足、各級民代名額有限、以及自己的提名人不可能居副位等,讓彼此互信全無,加深整合的困難。</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* 曾在稍早的評論裡,提及「藍白合」的困難,以及對未來「非綠陣營」整合的悲觀。相關的看法至今未見改變,也因為「民主」是舶來品,政黨與政客只知道「整碗捧去」,而不懂得包容妥協的可貴,也就是「合併好談、合作免談」。 在未來百日內,如果藍白政黨繼續堅持「老大心態」,強調「有我沒你」,那「藍白合」將是天邊遙不可及的彩虹,最終的獲利者依然是現在的執政黨。</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-65639242931272920222023-09-23T13:50:00.000+08:002023-09-23T13:50:05.892+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">Where Do They Go From Here?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Hou You-yi has just returned from his US trip. Ke Wen-je continues to travel around the island despite consecutive declines in recent polls. Terry Gou has launched the write-in campaign. The three candidates from the opposition appear headed in different directions, each preparing to run an independent race until next January.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Though everyone knows without forming a combined ticket, none of them could compete individually and expect to win against DPP's William Lai. Despite heightened anxiety from the grassroots, none is taking concrete steps toward that goal.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* While the election is still 100-plus days away, each is preparing for the worse and hoping some "miraculous development" would lead them to the Promised Land. There is no indication that is imminent, or even likely.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The most likely scenario is for the three of them to form two tickets in, the latest, November, with a "Ke-Gou" partnership most likely. Though the KMT welcomes a "Hou-Ke" union, it would mark the end of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) which Ke founded four years ago. Besides, Ke needs to go no further than reviewing the recent history of the People First Party's (PFP) often-rumored, but never realized, merger with the KMT. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Since Hou WILL NOT accept a VP role because the KMT "has 14 city mayors and county magistrates, along with 35 seats in the Legislative Yuan (LY)," the grand old party will not accept anything less than atop the ticket. Since Ke needs to make himself a more formidable candidate, joining forces with Gou wouldn't be a bad tactical move. However, whether Gou would accept the second spot on the ticket remains to be seen.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-14344151417871308842023-09-18T16:38:00.000+08:002023-09-18T16:38:05.526+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">The Next Phase Begins...</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Terry Gou and his running mate, Ms. Lai Pei Hsia, officially qualified to become write-in candidates for the presidential election next January. Starting on September 19, they'll have 45 days to gather nearly 290,000 signatures, along with photocopies of national identification card from each. Though the task has been accomplished by others before, it's not going to be a walk in the park. The Central Election Commission (CEC) will then review the submitted write-in petitions and make the final results known on November 14, 2023, before the field is finalized.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Despite repeated pledges to stay in the race until the end, questions persist if Terry Gou would risk breaking the opposition camp apart and hand an easy victory to DPP's William Lai. It's unclear if the opposition camp can come together to form a combined ticket, most likely after KMT's Hou You-yi comes back next week from his current trip to the US. However, if there's little room for maneuvering as everyone insists on heading the ticket, prospects are bleak for any efforts at unifying the opposition. It is a simple concept that seems to have gone out of fashion within the opposition.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* With less than 100 days left in the campaign, the ruling DPP and Lai appear headed toward a not-too-difficult victory. In the coming weeks, opposition will likely expose alleged scandals of the ruling party. However, unless the accusation is substantiated <u>AND</u> is directly connected to Lai himself, overcoming a 10- to 15-point deficit in the opinion polls seems a bridge too far for the KMT, the TPP, and Terry Gou.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-27892240778343600582023-09-07T10:55:00.000+08:002023-09-07T10:55:57.284+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">團結...還是一團心結?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">* </span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">記憶中,台灣民主發展的過程一直是鬧鬨鬨的,高低起伏,永無冷場。從早期的戒嚴時期到在野人士對政治體制的抗爭,幾乎每天都可以看到朝野各政黨的爭吵、攻擊、甚至肢體衝突,在在凸顯民主轉型的初期,各個政治團體對國家定位、社會公義、與競爭規範的差異與堅持。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* 這份堅持的背後隱藏著彼此在意識形態上的鴻溝、根深蒂固的不信任、以及「有我無你」的政治DNA。雖然台灣解除戒嚴已近四十年,政黨間的競爭、甚至鬥爭未曾停歇,過程中加深了社會的對立,壓縮了理性對話的空間,也忘記培養「競爭而不鬥爭」的民主素養。所以政黨及個人只懂得「整碗捧去」,不知道為了公共利益而擱置自我的價值,遑論「團結」對一個新興民主的意義。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* 民主不是只有投票,選舉結果也不是輸贏的唯一標準。但在一個瀰漫「速食主義」的社會裡,有形的數據變成主要的測試工具,而勝選成為目的、更是手段,不再「成功不必在我」,而是「成功一定是我」。雖然瞭解分裂的後果,但永遠在彼此一團心結的糾葛下,不知「團結」為何物、也跳脫不開「勝選一定在我、有我、是我」的迷失。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-17504369762285019722023-09-04T11:18:00.000+08:002023-09-04T11:18:03.414+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">Time to Scramble...</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The four presidential candidates--William Lai, Ke Wen-je, Hou You-yi, and Terry Gou--begin September with a specific target that each wants to reach. With roughly four months before the January 13 vote, all four want to make sure major handicaps removed and poll positions strengthened.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* As the "first among equals" in opinion polls, Lai cannot afford to be complacent and plans to step up campaign activities around the island. Though Lai currently has a double-digit lead over the closest rival, he is fully aware that the opposition will intensify efforts to form a combined ticket in coming weeks and months. It's not the time to sit on his lead and look too far ahead.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* KMT's Hou You-yi will visit the U.S., including D.C., in mid-September. Not well-known for his position on cross-Strait relations, Hou must convince U.S. policymakers that he will not "lean overwhelmingly" on Beijing, particularly in economic and technological areas. It remains to be seen as how he plans to deliver on that front.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Similar to Lai, TPP's Ke Wen-je has outlined campaigning activities in the coming weeks, particularly in Central and Southern Taiwan. Ke has been slipping a bit in recent polls, with many unsure about his position on key issues, including cross-Strait relations. He has been advised to elaborate on key policies, but has protracted the process, which has been easily interpreted as an indication that he's not quite ready.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Finally, Foxconn Founder Terry Gou has to put all of his efforts in the write-in, petition drive, which starts on September 19. The process is only 45 days to reach, at least, 290,000 copies. Though Gou's camp sounds optimistic, it's not an easy target to accomplish. If he's not able to generate that many, Gou won't be on the ballot as a write-in candidate. Moreover, if he's not able to submit substantially more copies than 290,000, say a cool million, he won't be able to generate adequate momentum going into the final campaign stretch. </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-31953890687858085522023-08-29T12:00:00.003+08:002023-08-29T12:00:47.682+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">Twin-City Forum Resumes</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* First started in 2010, the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum returns August 30-31, 2023. It was staged as a platform where the two cities could explore ways to broaden areas of collaboration and deepen bilateral relationship. Since the Forum is confined to Taipei and Shanghai, it was designed to supplement cross-Strait relations, in good or bad times.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* While substantive results were limited in the last 13 years, the mechanism has become an indicator of the state of cross-Strait relations, as well as a model of local-level exchanges for both sides. With the election of KMT's Wayne Chiang, who is also Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek's great grand son, as Taipei mayor last November, it is no surprise to see the resumption of the Twin-City Forum this week.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Chiang's visit to Shanghai will be a time for the CPC to get a closer look and understand the 4th-generation Chiang a little better. Though he's been on the job for less than a year, the younger Chiang has been cautious and low-key, while staying away from controversial issues. However, since two former Taipei mayors--Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou--have gone on to become ROC president, many expect Chiang to stay politically relevant by NOT committing any major policy missteps. If he does play his cards right, a presidential run in 2032, when Chiang is just 54, should not be ruled out.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-33894254655830564122023-08-28T16:57:00.001+08:002023-08-28T16:57:54.504+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span style="font-size: large;">Terry Gou Made it Official...</span> </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Foxconn Founder Terry Gou called a news conference on August 28 and declared his candidacy for president. Though he has been at the bottom of most opinion polls in recent months in a possible four-way race, he appeared unfazed and believed his "numbers will climb upward" after today's official announcement.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Gou's decision to join the race was not a surprise. His aspiration to contest the top political office on the island is no secret. Though his first crack at the presidency was not successful in 2020, he has remained active in the public domain since, most notably the purchase of five million doses of BNT's anti-corona virus vaccine at the peak of the pandemic in 2021. Many thought he had given up on pursuing the presidency and would just remain a philanthropist on social and biotech issues, but Gou's political ambition "resurfaced" last April when he took part in the opposition KMT's nomination process. Yet again, he came up short and lost the nomination to New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Now Gou's needs to undertake a signed-petition drive and must exceed 290,000 copies, which is 1.5% of the total electorate in the last presidential election, to put his name on the ballot. Despite Gou's optimistic beat at the news conference, it is a formidable challenge, particularly for someone that lacks grassroots organization to coordinate and reach that goal. Besides, a prospective candidate only has 45 days--from September 19 to November 2--to get the job done. In this day and age where a premium is placed on personal data protection, it's going to be tight.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Some believe Gou is pursuing a strategy of "stop me, if you dare." He doesn't expect the KMT or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) to take him seriously unless he has made significant progress toward becoming a candidate. Launching his candidacy today and making a split in the pan-Blue (KMT) camp a looming reality will achieve that objective. However, Gou would not want to risk shouldering the responsibility of breaking apart the opposition alliance, but he wants a seat at the table and be treated as equal.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* It would be premature for the DPP's William Lai to declare victory following Gou's announcement today, though that prospect is getting brighter. In a four-way race with Gou in it, Lai is expected to win a landslide. Everyone knows it's simple mathematics. Only the leaders of the opposition seemingly don't get it since everyone just sits and waits for someone else to make a mistake, either strategic or substantive. But the clock is ticking..... </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-4086458942984352122023-08-23T13:38:00.002+08:002023-08-23T13:38:20.293+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"></p><h1><i style="font-family: times; font-size: x-large; font-weight: normal; text-align: left;">Is Lai a Shoo-in?</i></h1><div><i style="font-family: times; font-size: x-large; font-weight: normal; text-align: left;">* </i><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Taiwan's incumbent vice president, William CT Lai, who is simultaneously the ruling DPP's presidential nominee, has been leading in the polls by a sizable lead since he was nominated in March. The lead grew in the last two weeks upon Lai's return from an overseas trip in mid-August. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The increased lead was actually not a surprise, but a carefully engineered event meant to make Lai look "presidential." Beginning with interviews with major news, Lai received largely positive press coverage that was designed to ease anxiety resulted from his remarks on "being a pro-independence pragmatist." Though concerns over those yesteryear's remarks may never disappear completely, Lai has apparently made some people, particularly in Washington's policy circles, sleep a little better at night.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* How about the non-DPP opposition parties? Though everyone talks about "unifying behind a single ticket," there has been little, if any, steps taken to make that a reality. That shouldn't surprise anyone either since: (1) democracy is an import. Having elections doesn't translate to people truly know what democracy is. It also happens elsewhere, including the US where a certain former president refused to acknowledge defeat and kept advocating "the 2020 election was stolen," and (2) the three presidential aspirants--KMT's Hou You-yi, TPP's Ke Wen-je, and Foxconn Founder Terry Gou--simply don't like each other. No one appreciates the value of compromise, which a fundamental idea in any democracy. Apparently it doesn't happen within Taiwan's opposition camp.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The election is still almost five months away, so a lot could happen to make it truly competitive. However, unless either (1) the opposition can miraculously form a unified ticket, or (2) Lai commits a major misstep in the campaign, the election will be won by the one that once advocated dejure independence. </span></div><p></p><p> </p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p><i style="font-family: times; font-size: x-large; font-weight: normal; text-align: left;"><br /></i></p><div><i style="font-family: times; font-size: x-large; font-weight: normal; text-align: left;"><br /></i></div><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-91603776212779156852023-07-19T11:00:00.000+08:002023-07-19T11:00:00.107+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Will an Anti-DPP Coalition be formed?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Though the 2024 presidential election is still five-plus months away, the list of contenders remains in a state of flux. Other than the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) nominee, William Lai, the opposition camp--including the Kuomintang (KMT), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and Foxconn founder Terry Gou--remains divided and far from forming a united ticket to compete against the DPP. As such, most polls believe, if the election were held today, Lai will handily win the race with approximately 38-40% of the popular vote.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The opposition camp knows the math well, and neither the KMT nor the TPP stands a chance at winning all the marbles. Though efforts have intensified behind the scene, progress has been limited to sporadic photo-ops. This has made the rank-and-file very antsy and allegiance divided. The KMT plans to hold its plenary session on July 23 to make Hou You-yi's nomination official. The remaining challenge is to: (1) whether Gou would return to the KMT after an unsuccessful nomination bid, and (2) whether an unified ticket is possible with TPP's Ko Wen-je?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Unity has always been a lofty goal for the KMT, beginning with the division between Lian Chan and James Soong in the 2000 presidential election. In a fundamental sense, unity has been the Achilles' Heel for the KMT for many decades. Things are not particularly promising in this election cycle.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* The attention then turns to former Taipei Mayor Ke, specifically whether he would stay in the race until the end. Ke has positioned himself comfortably at the second place in recent polls, with a sizable lead over others for those 40 and under. It's hard to imagine that Ke's poll number would fluctuate much, but the lead he currently enjoys over Ho could narrow. If, and when, that happens, the KMT may be in a better position to negotiate with the TPP on forging an alliance, or forming a combined ticket. The race to gain an outright majority would be another area of give-and-take. Though trained as a physician, Ke has become a shrewd politician after serving as Taipei mayor for eight years. He will make the deal when he gains a solid footing in the domestic political landscape and senses the upside far outweighs the negatives. </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-57484195778647632552023-07-10T11:44:00.003+08:002023-07-10T11:45:35.322+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times;"> <span style="font-size: medium;">What Would Gou Do Next?</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">*<span style="font-family: times;"> The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) will hold a party plenary meeting on Saturday, July 18, at which time it will make the nomination of New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi for president official. Though the session is just days away, many moving parts are still in play that would make Hou's expected nomination uncertain, unpredictable, </span></span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">and uncomfortable, at least for some.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span><span style="font-family: times;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh0dcIUHdfgTJ1kAquOPbvUyf366zmjG87GBEz3RMiOvLhWNseWoVkY6LgnbMcNJFwR5-Aczo6AiFD-c9pBmYnm3-nUyrC0VvcqwnAieFqLTWrW6LvGsDn7DTRvQNJgvcu02QG47hv6lVvq3JR1n2UR7farz1KQTKlo6aseylSvuUvfwYR0Plf--i0Ffs/s3088/IMG_6519.HEIC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3088" data-original-width="2316" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh0dcIUHdfgTJ1kAquOPbvUyf366zmjG87GBEz3RMiOvLhWNseWoVkY6LgnbMcNJFwR5-Aczo6AiFD-c9pBmYnm3-nUyrC0VvcqwnAieFqLTWrW6LvGsDn7DTRvQNJgvcu02QG47hv6lVvq3JR1n2UR7farz1KQTKlo6aseylSvuUvfwYR0Plf--i0Ffs/w240-h320/IMG_6519.HEIC" width="240" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span></span><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* The biggest question centers around the true intentions of Foxconn founder Terry Gou and his next step. While some still grabbing onto the slim chance that the KMT would change its presidential nominee, like it did in 2016, and go with someone like Gou instead. In addition, the party is clearly divided between those supporting Hou and those supporting Gou. There is no indication that the intra-party healing is imminent, or set to begin soon after July 18.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* Unity has always been a big problem with the KMT. Though reasons are many, most of which have centered on the party's practice of doing things in "the black box." The lack of transparency creates resentment and raises doubts about fairness. For a party deeply rooted in fifty years of monopoly on power, it is a hard habit to break as the privileged few continue to manipulate relations among the contending factions and personalities.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">* We don't anticipate a last-minute change of the KMT presidential nominee, and we also believe the KMT will fare poorly at the polls next January 13. In all likelihood, Gou WILL NOT rejoin the KMT. In fact, he's been planning an islandwide signature drive to meet the thresholds necessary as a write-in, independent candidate. It will be a long and arduous process and a severe test of the collective will behind Gou's presidential ambition. We'll find out in the next few months.</span></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-27337369160655756922023-06-15T11:55:00.000+08:002023-06-15T11:55:01.695+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Rapid Changes in Public Opinions</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"> *<span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> In an election year, opinion polls are the most readily available indicator of how the campaign is going for each of the candidates. For Taiwan's presidential race in January 2024, there have been subtle changes that may evidence a dominant two-party system in Taiwan is under closer scrutiny and a changing political landscape is coming.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* According to the latest poll numbers, the ruling DPP has dropped over 6% in party approval and support ratings, while the KMT suffered another 5% decline from last month. Worse yet for the KMT, the former Taipei Mayor Ke Wen Je-led Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has overtaken the KMT and captured the second place behind the ruling DPP in the same category.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Though most believe the TPP has the momentum and the support, especially among voters 40 and under, to make a significant impact in the campaign, most didn't expect that upward thrust would come so strongly, and push the KMT to the third place so quickly. If this pattern holds, Ke, as TPP's presidential nominee, is in position to fortify his candidacy and elevate the relevance of TPP in Taiwan's democracy.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* While the election is still seven months away, the KMT is cautioned not to be perceived, or always stay, in third-place from here on out. If that perception sticks, it's very difficult, if not impossible, for the KMT to be considered seriously in future islandwide campaigns. Its presidential nominee, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi, is currently embroiled in a kindergarten controversy with alleged misuse of medicine. More importantly, the inability to repair divisions from its primary has long remained the party's Achilles' Heel that would further undermine its political stature and influence domestically.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd4dnx9dyTE73IgXsJaRCSyvCr96aRCuW2_yPXb9zQpb-_O9jyxySHVU9iDT2KE3dG5hirUxVMc3CvXelCMKzcz7xAAYIjeBRKxGXMwoJKuF0KEuWYO06B6_6uRX9GFQ4IbweRMNI6MABfSC1LpPLDpIdHz93jffUL05RfwsgvF4C6mfLEMZ_2HXQR/s4032/IMG_6515.HEIC" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd4dnx9dyTE73IgXsJaRCSyvCr96aRCuW2_yPXb9zQpb-_O9jyxySHVU9iDT2KE3dG5hirUxVMc3CvXelCMKzcz7xAAYIjeBRKxGXMwoJKuF0KEuWYO06B6_6uRX9GFQ4IbweRMNI6MABfSC1LpPLDpIdHz93jffUL05RfwsgvF4C6mfLEMZ_2HXQR/w649-h319/IMG_6515.HEIC" width="649" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-776665245984654092023-06-12T12:14:00.000+08:002023-06-12T12:14:04.093+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Dialogue, Dialogue, and More Dialogue</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), Sandra Oudkirk, made a statement that could signal a subtle policy shift in the U.S. management of cross-Strait relations.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Ms. Oudkirk declared that, "Dialogue is good. Dialogue is useful," on Friday, June 9, in Taipei. At a time when Washington is seeking dialogue with China, the U.S. encourages the three Taiwan's presidential candidates--DPP's William Lai, KMT's Hou You-yi, and TPP's Ke Wen-je--to do the same.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Although the U.S. has always welcomed cross-Strait dialogue between the two feuding neighbors, this time could mark the beginning of a more conciliatory approach toward China that the U.S. would like to see taking place before things get out of control, in and around the Taiwan Strait. The biggest threat has always been the risks of miscalculation, or misinterpretation, since cross-Strait dialogue has been shut down completely since 2016 when Tsai Ing-wen became president.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Since Beijing has preconditioned the acceptance of the 1992 consensus before resumption of dialogue, it seems highly unlikely, if not impossible, that the Tsai administration would make any overture before the January 2024 presidential election.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Among the three candidates, Lai once prided himself as a "pragmatic pro-independence advocate" is the least likely among the three to propose any concrete steps to resume dialogue. While Hou may be in a better position to make dialogue a reality after taking over the presidency, he has been elusive and reluctant to express his view toward the 1992 consensus, or his policy approach toward China. As for Ke, he does not appear to be a man of deep, personal convictions, especially on sensitive issues like cross-Strait relations. He would, however, periodically throw out ideas deemed appealing to the segment of the electorate, or the international audience, at that time. So, it seems too early to call if the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue appears imminent.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjozpY_bAGsUqtO49WLuJx7UIMkaHEab7-vEu30vKh_xvaJW13KO_rxlHVoXjXZ1v1O41grZaGyx7pjW3PYL3vt0qQNWWs1l46dnAVklmkHNQWv45hHXAg5LxNEziuyaQ3RID-KCDpWyjzqQlggzkTUmXkrY_U__kjnFL8NfLAdRzXygojqwEaYtslG/s4032/IMG_6792.HEIC" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="427" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjozpY_bAGsUqtO49WLuJx7UIMkaHEab7-vEu30vKh_xvaJW13KO_rxlHVoXjXZ1v1O41grZaGyx7pjW3PYL3vt0qQNWWs1l46dnAVklmkHNQWv45hHXAg5LxNEziuyaQ3RID-KCDpWyjzqQlggzkTUmXkrY_U__kjnFL8NfLAdRzXygojqwEaYtslG/w652-h427/IMG_6792.HEIC" width="652" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7139771374075128980.post-14854938123888926612023-06-05T11:56:00.001+08:002023-06-05T11:56:10.173+08:00<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> Risk of </span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Marginalization</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* According to the latest opinion polls, KMT presidential nominee Hou You-yi has fallen further behind to third place, behind DPP's William Lai and TPP's Je Wen-je. This has put many rank-and-file members on the edge and are calling for replacing Hou, possibly with Foxconn founder Terry Gou. Though that possibility is remote at best, Hou has done very little, if anything, to repair intra-party cleavage and division since his nomination on May 17.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* In fact, Hou has spent the bulk of his time visiting retired, aging KMT politicians, "seeking wisdom" and accumulate support. This is a VERY, VERY old-fashioned campaign style once championed by the KMT in the 1990s. But most of the electorate does not know, or remember, these older generations of KMT leaders, especially for those 40 and under. In addition, Hou has avoided answering key questions on cross-Strait relations with China and Taiwan's nuclear energy. He might have been able to dodge those questions when he wasn't the nominee, but now as the nominee, his reluctance to respond has been largely interpreted as an indication that he is not ready to lead. That does not bode well for Hou and the KMT. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* To be frank, Hou has never been a charismatic political leader. As a former policeman, his low-key, no-nonsense approach might have been great in crime-fighting, but that style is clearly outdated in Taiwan's animated domestic politics today. Moreover, he is especially behind the other two contenders among those under 40 and those with higher educational background. Sadly he has done little to broaden ties and deepen understanding with those voting blocks.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">* Making the matter worse, Hou has not consolidated his campaign team with those at the KMT HQ. His lack of progress at integrating the two is, at least partially, a reflection of his plans to remain somewhat apart, on some policies, from the KMT. The intent might have been to try and capture those considered "middle-of-the-road," but the result so far has been the inability to solidify support first among the KMT grassroots. Though there's still time to turn things around, there's no indication that Hou's rebound in poll standing is either immediate or imminent. Stranger things have happened under similar circumstances in the past.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_cUp671p95BSd9d4MyWZqNVhbFyTU5Ax3nNYUBUGPV62H02cnX16GJFvNVmXZSkQvW1PUmu8Sqfm_LgPXWNp_YMiDUu8iwBAMaeamIq9OKVV2xYRDhBjiXcShpdyAHoISNdlRjl_FvzgG9MsWy80yhOcvDhA1-aKeXc3oCtpI8dlQW_DL5HiGR9Hh/s1477/IMG_7105.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1477" data-original-width="1108" height="521" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_cUp671p95BSd9d4MyWZqNVhbFyTU5Ax3nNYUBUGPV62H02cnX16GJFvNVmXZSkQvW1PUmu8Sqfm_LgPXWNp_YMiDUu8iwBAMaeamIq9OKVV2xYRDhBjiXcShpdyAHoISNdlRjl_FvzgG9MsWy80yhOcvDhA1-aKeXc3oCtpI8dlQW_DL5HiGR9Hh/w677-h521/IMG_7105.JPG" width="677" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /> </span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0