Thursday, September 19, 2019

Gou's Decision

* Foxconn's founder and former chairman, Terry Gou, announced his decision late Monday night to withdraw from Taiwan's 2020 presidential election. The decision was both a surprise to most and a disappointment to his supporters.

* Many speculated on why Gou made the decision he did, including he did not want to be held accountable for Kuomintang (KMT) nominee, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, and considered a contributing factor to the widely expected reelection victory of President Tsai Ing-wen. The KMT, of course, welcomed Gou's decision that would most likely prevent an intro party split and enhance the likelihood of Han's election odds. The latest opinion polls, however, proved otherwise.

* Despite Gou's decision, Han's standing in the polls remained significantly behind--anywhere from 10-12%--President Tsai. Worse yet, there is no indication that Han's downward slide would gain traction anytime soon. Not only for Han, this is a worrisome trend that KMT did not expect following its overwhelming victory in the mayoral elections last November.

* Though Gou vowed to stay active in Taiwan's public affairs, it is unlikely that he could become a credible candidate for elected offices in the foreseeable future. His lack of organizational support, unfamiliarity with many policies, and the failure to fully comprehend the complexity and ramifications of his candidacy in an already-divisive political environment were just some of the major reasons for his abrupt exit. While some KMT supporters are expecting the dramatics, i.e. another change atop the ticket, in the final months of the race, external and internal factors would limit the potential impact on the eventual outcome.