Sunday, November 25, 2018

The Day After

* Other than the Taipei mayoral race, the islandwide elections came to an end in Taiwan. It was a huge landslide victory for the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and a devastating defeat of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Immediately after the results were announced, President Tsai Ing-wen, simultaneously the DPP chairwoman, tendered her resignation to the party. At the same time, Premier William Chin-teh Lai and Secretary-General of the President's Office Chen Chu also offered their resignations.
* Though not surprising, the KMT's margin of victory was beyond expectations of most. The number of seats went from six to fifteen, out of 22 total, in a complete makeover of the domestic political landscape. It could lay the foundation for another victory for the KMT in next year's presidential and legislative elections. However, judging from its history, the real challenge starts now as presidential aspirants may lead to party infighting that could undermine the always-fragile unity.
* On the other hand, the ruling DPP needs to reexamine itself from policy to personnel. Though the numbers tell a different story, the sense of economic malaise makes many uncertain about their future. In addition, the standoff in cross-Strait relations has adversely affected the outlook for, among other things,  the island's retail, hospitality, and service industries. If the DPP is not able to reverse such a downward spiral, another setback appears likely in next year's elections.
* The lingering controversy over Taipei mayoral race will continue for months as KMT nominee Ting Shou-chung filed a lawsuit to void the election. It will take weeks before the court decides whether another election is necessary. If that happens, the election could be set for early next year. Another showdown along partisan lines would not bode well for Ting.
* The narrow victory for Taipei incumbent mayor, Ko Wen-je, marks, at least temporarily, a pause in his planned but unannounced march toward the presidency, possibly as early as 2020. Ko needs to deliver and manage the island's megalopolis like an experienced CEO, not an Internet sensation. With rise in popularity of the newly elected Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, Ko is quickly losing his appeal if he continues his "do nothing, make no mistake" style of leadership. He may also need to reevaluate his relations with both major parties, as an islandwide campaign without the organisational support of a political party appears difficult, if not impossible.  

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