* With the yearend mayoral elections just three weeks away, the momentum seems to have shifted in favour of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). From Taipei to Kaohsiung, many KMT candidates have either solidified their lead or narrowed the gap. The overall picture does not look promising for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
* Reasons for DPP's electoral woes are many. First and foremost, the administration's apparent inability, or unwillingness, to stabilise cross-Strait ties with China. Rising tensions have, in turn, led to declining mainland tourists and economic activities. The direct casualty is the island's hospitality and retail sectors.
* Though the majority of Taiwanese prefers the maintenance of status quo, they would like to see President Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP administration "better manage" this emotional but vital relationship. From rhetoric to action, tensions have been rising since Tsai took over in May 2016. Since Tsai refuses to accept, or acknowledge, the so-called "1992 consensus," there does not seem to be an end in sight as the standoff continues.
* Two things to watch as the mayoral campaign enters the final days:
(1) Which party or candidate(s) would make the fewest mistakes, irrespective of strategy or substance; and
(2) Which party is able to mobilise its supporters and attract most middle-of-the-road voters?
* It maybe too early to call the election, and three weeks can be a lifetime in politics.
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