Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Implications of the worse-than-expected trade numbers

l  Taiwan’s exports and imports continued to decline and fell for the second consecutive month in September.

l  Primarily because of the recent global economic slowdown and the declining sales of optical and petrochemical products in particular, Taiwan’s export-oriented economy is expected to experience further slowdown unless, and until, the European debt crisis stabilizes and the US makes a sustained economic recovery.

l  We believed that the fourth quarter—despite usually being the peak season for Taiwan’s external trade—will continue to see slowed growth because of the European debt crisis and the sluggish economic recovery, particularly the high unemployment, in the United States.

l  As a result, we expect the government will soon adjust downward the 15 percent annual export growth originally projected by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS).

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